Friday, November 16, 2012

Arab Spring?

Arab spring - it's more like an Arab winter.  Obama would prefer we believe that the overthrow of dictators - such as Mubarek in Egypt, and then democratic elections, is one of the most positive things that could happen in the Muslim world.  That these newly elected democratic governments will be sympatico with the United States.  Actually, just the opposite is likely - the new governments are likely to end up as religious dictatorships (one democratic vote, and then a religious dictatorship thereafter).  Sadly, a nonsecular Islamist government is by it's very nature inimical to the United States (and to all non-Muslims). 

In the case of Egypt, the new government - the Islamic Brotherhood, are proponents of Sharia Law, turning women into second class (or worse) citizens, the destruction of Israel, and the spreading (and not necessarily peacefully) of Islam wordlwide.  Think back to the overthrow of the Shah of Iran, and the malevolent Islamic dictatorship that we've had to deal with ever since.  NOTE:  True, so far we've been able to bribe (via foreign aid) Egypt into being somewhat reasonable, but that situation could end at any time - quite possibly immediately due to the recent Israeli/Hamas flare-up.

Assuming that overthrown dictators will result in an "Arab spring"  is incredible naive, on a par with the statement that Jimmy Carter made immediately after Russia invaded Afghanistan in 1979 - "the last 24 hours have taught me more about the true motives of the Soviet Union than the previous 3.5 years".   The naivete involved with that statement still astounds me.

Overthrow of dictatorships in Muslim countires is fraught with peril as any change of governments can so easily end up as a religious dictatorship that is far worse than the dictatorship that it replaced ever was.  NOTE:  A Middle East comprised of Muslim countries exercising a "tyranny of the majority"  modus operandi, trampling over the rights, and sometimes the very lifes, of minorities is a nightmare scenario of persecution and never-ending misery.

Comment:  We need to be ever vigiliant to opportunities to work with truly democratic forces within Muslim countries in an attempt to guide and support these individuals so that a true democracy, rather than another form of dictatorship, results.  Nonsecular governments are not only inimical/hostile to the United States, but they are typically pernicious to a significant portion of their own citizens.  Backing the overthrow of friendly dictators (like Mubarek), without having democratic forces identified/supported by this country in place that have a real chance of success in forming a new democratic government, is a recipe for disaster.

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