Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Debt Ceiling Increase - Best Strategy for Republicans

Recommendation for Republicans: Republicans should tell Democrats - adopt Bowles-Simpson - "take it or leave it". Since Bowles-Simpson was a bi-partisan committee, designed to solve the debt crisis, do not think that Democrats would be able to say no to this deal, and since I believe that this is the best deal that Republicans can possible get anyway - this is how they should proceed.

Republicans have recently been proposing that pieces of Bowles-Simpson should be used as part of the now finalized Fiscal Cliff and the Debt Ceiling deal - but this is not their best approach. To force a deal - they need to demand that Bowles-Simpson be utilized - word for word.

Status of the Negotiations: If you look at things from the perspective of the Fall 2011 through today. the only cuts to expenditures that have occurred to date are by way of sequestration ($500B cut to defense, and $500B cut to discretionary spending). NOTE: The major components of the fiscal cliff deal in Jan were further extension of unemployment benefits, and a tax increase on families making over $450K. There were no expenditure cuts.

Sequester: Republicans should let the sequester cuts stand unless biparrtisan expenditure offsets can be agreed to. Taxes should not be raised to offset/recover the sequester cuts. NOTE: If bi-patisan agreements can be reached to allow prioritization and then reprogramming of expenditure cuts within the governmental Departments - to soften the effects of the sequestration, that would be a positive development.

Recommendation: Republicans need to do something to slow the growth of the deficit. Let the government default/shutdown if that's what it takes to get meaningful reductions to our federal debt. Republicans need to accept that they will take a hit (political blame) if the government defaults/shuts down. Instead of worrying over being blamed for this, they need to own the blame if necessary, and instead use the authority to raise the debt ceiling as leverage to get real expenditure cuts. They need to stand firm for as long as necessary to obtain real and substantive reduction to the growth of the deficit.

In the long run - if through the Republicans standing firm - if through their strength of will, the deficit issue is resolved, the immediate blame of the government default/shut down will be more than offset by the credit for putting the nation on a supportable path forward, as we back away from the financial abyss.

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